Predictions

The “I told you so” of predictions

For a long number of years, I’ve been making predictions of what would happen in the future. Sometimes it has been a short term future, sometimes a bit longer reach. I was browsing some of the old stuff I have and decided to take a look at some of those things and how my insights did become reality.

2009 predictions

I claimed in my presentation for international top executives in the wind energy production business that “People ignore advertising and there needs to be opt-in for marketing messages” and “People ignore traditional authorities and listen and trust communities.”

That pretty much is true for both counts.

I also noted things like:

  • Closer contact with partners and customers
  • Cost-efficient marketing possibilities and direct feedback from customers

But maybe the biggest thing was to claim that “Marketing activities move to platforms, channels and communities” and that has truly happened.

Pretty good overall predictions back then.

2012 predictions

In 2012 I gave an official prediction for the marketing trends. They all succeeded pretty well. Let’s see:

  • Google(+) – The Google part happened, but G+ didn’t manage to migrate the crowds out of Facebook. Today, Google is ruling many worlds, but the social network has been transformed as a common sign-in for other Google services.
  • Mobile – this has happened big time. Location, mobile video and HTML5 are with us – QR codes didn’t make it big, though.
  • Content – I hit it right on there. It has become the key in all marketing today. Content strategies and video content are all over the place.
  • Personal branding –  Back then many people had doubts with this one. Not today. Personal branding is a hot, hot topic for people.
  • Marketing metrics – This is my favourite, measuring the actual marketing activities. This did not happen in 2012, but is hitting the radar since 2014 or so.
  • Marketing mix – with this I meant really the new areas and practises that marketing would include. I did not happen in 2012, but today the terms “marketing automation”, “social selling” and “social CRM” effectively make the same thing.
  • Brand ownership – it was to change. Brands are now stronger and more meaningful, but the control over the brands and the perception is really defined and created by the ecosystem and the people.
  • Unsiloing – well, some has happened but there is still a long way to go. Putting customer experience into focus has forced corporations to think outside their own silo, though.
  • Gamification – it did happen, but it became a trendy thing to do, so the results were not that attractive and a lot has faded away.
  • Topics – meaning things like category ownership and ownership of the most used keywords. This has happened, first with the SEO keywords and later on as a category ownership thinking.

2014 predictions

More predictions:

  • Agile planning and execution in marketing – done for the most.
  • Corporation in the center will change into business ecosystems – today this is called platform economy.
  • You are the media! – done. Also companies are the media nowadays
  • Bringing meaningful value to the customer is the key – is something that people are trying to do instead of broadcasting their own product or service.

2016 predictions

Last year I did less predicting, but there was some organisational views I was sharing. In December I wrote about different organisation types, independently of the book Reinventing Organizations, which I have not read myself. Those types are Non-structured organisation, Ad hoc organisation and Borderless organisation. For this, it’s too early to say anything about the likelihood of them becoming real.

Next?

As a conclusion, lot of the predictions I have made during the past years have become reality in one way or another. Maybe the timing has been off or they have eventually been called something totally different. But should some had followed the advise when given, the direction should have been correct.

Maybe this is something I should do more often? I keep following the world and the changes in many dimensions. I know I have the ability to see weak signals and see the consequences of them. No one knows the future, but some can see the inevitable from a distance.

Should I publish more of this?

 

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